Get your questions ready and join in at 1 p.m. Wednesday for our weekly Blues chat.
Matthew DeFranks: Good afternoon. The prospect tournament is over. The Blues open training camp tomorrow. It's hockey season again. Let's get to your questions.
Tylerg: Matty D, I hope everything is going well with you and the fam my guy. Per usual thanks for taking the time with us today, we all appreciate it. I have a random non Blues question and a random non-player Blues question. 1.) Kiril the Thrill. Minny’s owner said “blank check†when asked about what he’d spend to keep Kaprisov and Kaprisov allegedly turned down 16 mil per season over 8 years! Woah! I know you can’t predict the future, but just for fun how do you see that situation ending? 2.) What’s the general consensus or even what whispers have you heard in the Blues org about the handling of the John Kelly situation by the team? I was personally BEYOND happy he got a job based on how he was treated here at the end. Thanks again for doing this!
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Matthew DeFranks: Yeah, I had to stop and reread the news when I saw it to make sure the math was correct. The reports are that the Wild offered Kirill Kaprizov an eight-year contract worth a $16M AAV, which would be the biggest contract in the history of the sport. I figured there would be some whoppers as the cap goes up, but I didn't see this one getting turned down.
I guess every year, we've seen the number go higher. For years, it was McDavid at $12.5M that was the highest, then MacKinnon at $12.6M, then Matthews at $13.25M and Draisaitl at $14M.
I think everyone expects McDavid to again be the highest paid player once he signs his next contract, whether that's in Edmonton or elsewhere next summer in free agency.
But with Kaprizov, I think the Wild have to do everything they can to sign the guy. He's the most electric star they've ever had, and they simply can't lose him. The Leafs losing a player like Marner is one thing. The Wild losing a guy like Kaprizov is entirely different because of how much he means to the franchise.
As for John Kelly, I'm not sure we're ever going to get to the bottom of what happened. The Blues said what they said immediately after, and they have no interest in rehashing the decision. Kelly himself has not gone into details in any of the interviews he's done recently.
I do know that, like many of you, there are still plenty inside the Blues organization that were happy for John to find a new job in Los Angeles. He spent two decades with the team, there are a lot of friends he still has inside the franchise.
Eric: Thanks for the chat, Matthew! Excited to be talked hockey again! I watched some of the prospect tournament up in Minny. Thought Carbonneau, Stenberg, and Jiricek all stood out. How close do you think they are to making the NHL roster? Thanks!
Matthew DeFranks: I think Stenberg is probably the closest. He's the oldest, has some North American pro hockey experience and could play a versatile role up and down the lineup. After that, I'd guess Carbonneau is closer just based solely on the fact that forwards tend to arrive before defensemen, and not on where their skills are at currently.
I would agree with you that those guys stood out. I would throw in Dvorsky, Cranley, Pekarcik, Peterson and Kaskimaki as well.
Sctdog: Stenberg seems to be a neglected prospect, 2nd of three 1st round picks in the Dvorsky/Lidstein draft, yet a strong performer during the WJC for Sweden including I believe their captain last year. He reminds me of 24th pick Steen and 24th pick Oshie as a guy w many talents, good skills and head for the game. To me he looks like that skilled middle six complimentary player who lifts others and who the Blues hope Neighbors becomes.
Matthew DeFranks: There is a lot to like about Otto Stenberg because he does so many things well. The downside is that he doesn't have one skill that is elite. But teams need a player like that with play-making ability, a high motor and a bit of pest in his game.
I think I see where you're coming from with the Neighbours comp, but there are some differences in their games. I think Stenberg is more on the passer side of the spectrum with Neighbours as a scorer. Neighbours probably has a bit more of an edge to his game, too. But I understand the sentiment.
Sctdog: Could Lidstein become the next Gunnerson? I don’t mean that as a slight, long career, played very well as a complimentary player to Petro, a guy who’s a defensive anchor of a top two pairing.
Matthew DeFranks: This is the comparison that Doug Armstrong actually made before the WJC when Lindstein went crazy offensively. I can see it. I don't think Lindstein has a lot of offensive upside that will translate to the NHL. There will be points, but I don't see him as a weapon on the top power-play unit, you know? But Lindstein's skills are in skating, breaking the puck out with a solid first pass, and leading transition.
It will be an adjustment to the faster North American game, and I spoke to him about that over the weekend, but that's where he'll be good, not so much in the points department.
Sctdog: while there are a few stories in Lugic today, he looked done in Calgary, just too slow to be an effective forechecker. Wouldn’t a guy like Peterson be a better 4th line option. Torpo may or may not sign after next season and Lucic even if he makes the team this year isn’t going to be here when the blues become a threat?
Matthew DeFranks: Doug Armstrong spoke about the decision to bring in Milan Lucic on a PTO, and our Lynn Worthy will have more on that.
As for Lucic's potential fit, I struggle to see it. There are so many bodies there, and as you mentioned, Lucic was slow before he missed two years of organized hockey. The Blues will likely already have a slow center with Sundqvist on the fourth line, and plug in Lucic instead of Walker or Toropchenko and it becomes a much slower line. (I guess you can also shift Walker inside to play center, but that's another conversation)
The Blues would be in trouble if Lucic is considered for that spot as a third-line winger.
Dylan Peterson could be the Toropchenko replacement next season, and you're right, it could make sense to get him some games now. But I think when you're looking at the fourth line, teams just want guys they know can get the job done rather than trying to develop someone as they try to make the playoffs.
mrr: Thanks for the chat, and I hope you had a great summer!! Have the players you talked to mentioned having the way the Winipeg series ended as a motivation for work over the summer, or has it faded into the past and scabbed over?
Matthew DeFranks: I think we'll see an mix of that within the players. They want to used it as motivation, but also know this is a new year and needs to be separate from last year.
Sctdog: Odds of Dvorsky starting the season as 3RW similar to Thomas in 18/19?
Matthew DeFranks: I think they're low. They know they don't have to rush Dvorsky because of the veterans they have there, but it's still possible because the veterans he would have to beat out are guys like Sundqvist, Texier, Joseph, Bjugstad, etc.
But when he does arrive, I think there is a high chance it's on the wing like Thomas in 18-19.
Sctdog: when I think back to the starting lineups over the past few seasons the depth on this years team stands out. No fading players like Hayes or Saad expected to produce or hold a space. Instead 8 legit top 9 forwards w the oldest Scheen who’s still priductive. Instead of a mix of fading D w big contracts like Scandella, Leddy, Krug we no have better vets, Fowler, and young D. It seems like there are few hopes and prayers or stand ins, to the point Texir and Joesph seem like afterthoughts. Am I drinking too much Blues kool aid?
Matthew DeFranks: I agree with you on the depth. I think it's much better. When you look at Suter with 25 goals and Neighbours with 22 goals on the third line, that's fun, particularly because Suter is 29 and Neighbours is 23. They're not in their mid-30s.
I think the Blues have gone from trying out players on low-risk deals to acquiring usable players. I think about Kapanen, Vrana, Hayes, Texier and even Joseph, and many of those deals were hoping that a player would rebound. Now, they're getting young players with upside (Broberg, Holloway, Mailloux) or vets with a track record (Suter, Bjugstad).
I still think the biggest factor for the Blues will be Robert Thomas. If he's better than before, and a true 90 or 100-point player, that would give the Blues a top end producer they haven't had in 30 years (since Demitra).
HallPlante: Wish Blues would be transparent by acknowledging the Lucic PTO is a pity tryout. A favor from Jim Montgomery to support Lucic in his newfound sobriety journey.
Matthew DeFranks: The Blues are giving Lucic a shot, and I do think it has to do with both Peter Chiarelli's relationship with Lucic and Montgomery's very brief time with Lucic, and less to do with being champions for recovering alcoholics.
HallPlante: Has Montgomery revealed what will be point(s) of emphasis in training camp? Other than roster battles and shuffles.
Matthew DeFranks: Jim Montgomery meets with reporters tomorrow and then every day after that, so we'll have plenty of time to get to that during training camp. One thing that Doug Armstrong mentioned is details, and that Montgomery has certain details he needs to have on his team.
HallPlante: What considerations go into signing a draftee to an entry-level contract? Why wouldn't a team routinely sign, say, its top three draft picks shortly after the draft?
Mathew DeFranks: It's a good question, and the Blues are a team that signs their draft picks pretty early, I think. A lot of times, it just helps with control over their development process. Sometimes, it's not possible because a player is in college.
If I think about Adam Jiricek, I believe he signed his ELC a few days after being drafted, and that helped the Blues get him over to North America, land him in the OHL and then decide what to do this year whether it's the OHL or AHL. It also helps lessen the cap hit in the future as the contract slides and the signing bonuses get paid out.
For a guy like Justin Carbonneau, he's signed, but they had to wait for him to make a decision whether to go to juniors or college. If he wanted to go to Boston College, he would have been ineligible to sign a contract, but know that he's going back to the QMJHL, he's signed.
HallPlante: Does entry-level deal kick in with pro debut in minors or NHL debut?
Matthew DeFranks: ELCs can slide a year if a player is a teenager and plays in less than 10 NHL games. So last year, Dalibor Dvorsky was a teenager that played in the AHL, but he did not play 10 NHL games. His contract slid an extra year and will begin this year no matter what since he's 20.
The only issue you would run into with signing draft picks is if you didn't think they had a chance. You'll see teams not sign guys because they didn't develop well, or because there's no future in the organization. We can think about Landon Sim, Tyson Galloway and Noah Beck for the Blues.
GoThunder: Are Texier or Joseph worth anything in trade value?
Matthew DeFranks: One year ago, the Blues paid a fourth to Columbus to get Texier. They received a third for Joseph. I'm not sure either of them improved on that value last season, although the cap crunch is somewhat relieved around the league with the big jump over the summer.
HallPlante: That means Dvorsky will be paid $775,000 while likely starting this season in AHL. If correct, that's pricey for a minor leaguer.
Matthew DeFranks: Not exactly. ELCs are two-way contracts, meaning a player gets paid one salary in the NHL and one salary in the minors. In the minors, Dvorsky will make $82,500 and in the NHL, he'll make $855,000. So every day in the NHL matters for those guys to get NHL pay which is 10x more than the AHL pay.
HallPlante: Those guys like Sim, Galloway and Beck, I assume were picked in later rounds of draft. It makes sense to take wait-and-see approach before signing them.
Matthew DeFranks: Correct, and that process applies to guys like Will McIsaac currently.
Eric: Curious what your thoughts are about the 2 center position. Suter has a reputation as a playmaker, and gobbled up points with guys like Boeser and JT Miller on his line. Obviously the Blues have two dynamic wingers in Holloway and Kyrou. Is Suter a natural fit there or is it still Schenn's spot to lose?
Matthew DeFranks: Throughout the season, we'll probably see both of them at that spot at certain points. It's just the way line combinations go, right? In my head, that Schenn line was so dynamic that you have to try them back together again. Then you can have Suter be the two-way conscience on the third line with Neighbours and potentially Bjugstad on his wings.
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